Strikeouts and Hits
- Makio Mukai
- Apr 11
- 7 min read
I would like to start with the words that Ty Cobb seems to have said. Unfortunately, I have forgotten when and where I read them, so I cannot quote them exactly. I am very embarrassed, but please forgive me.
I think the words were something like this. "Babe Ruth strikes out too many times. Ted Williams walks too many times." I think this is a wise saying that expresses the essence of baseball. In other words, the real pleasure and fun of baseball comes from the batter hitting the ball, so it is important for the batter to concentrate on hitting the ball with his bat and getting a hit, rather than striking out or walking....I love Ty Cobb’s words, but I'm sure there are many people who cannot agree with Ty Cobb's words and my thoughts.
By the way, what would have happened if Babe Ruth and Ted Williams had corrected the points that Ty Cobb pointed out? I know it's taboo to bring up the word "if" because results are everything, but please allow me to bring up the word "if" just for fun this time.
If Babe Ruth had struck out less, I think he would have had more hits, and he might have won the Triple Crown.
If Ted Williams had walked less, I think he would have had more hits, and he might have won the Triple Crown more than twice. I also think Ted Williams might have been able to achieve "some amazing record related to hits". I will be sure to explain this in more detail in a column I plan to post on this website soon.
Now, of the problems of strikeouts and walks pointed out by Ty Cobb, this time I would like to focus on strikeouts.
Let’s start with one active player.
In 2017, there was a major leaguer who excited fans. He is a 25-year-old young man in his second year in the major leagues. He is Aaron Judge, an outfielder for the New York Yankees.
Judge was hitting a lot of home runs since the start of the season. Moreover, the home runs flew at a great speed and had a great distance. He also had a high batting average and many RBIs. So, around the end of May, many people were expecting that Judge might become a Triple Crown winner. However, I thought that there was no possibility for Judge to become a Triple Crown winner.
After that, I didn't pay much attention to Judge, but even just before the All-Star Game, that is, at the end of the first half of the season, many people were expecting that "Judge could become a Triple Crown winner." I was so surprised that I immediately checked Judge's batting stats. He was 1st in home runs with 30, 3rd in batting average with .329, and 2nd in RBI with 66. Looking at these numbers alone, it seems like he has the potential to become a Triple Crown winner. However, he only had 99 hits, but 109 strikeouts. I couldn't imagine that a batter who had more strikeouts than hits at the end of the first half of the season could become a Triple Crown winner.
As I expected, Judge did not become a Triple Crown winner in the end. Judge had the most strikeouts in the American League with 208, and 154 hits. He was the home run leader, but was second in RBIs. And his batting average ranking dropped to 23rd.
Why do I care about the number of strikeouts? And why do I compare the number of strikeouts to the number of hits? To explain these things, I think it would be good to present some historical facts that I have researched.
In the modern era of MLB, which began with the 20th century, 12 players have won the Triple Crown a total of 14 times, and in 13 of those times, the number of Triple Crown winner’s strikeouts was less than half the number of his hits. In the remaining one, the number of Triple Crown winner’s hits was 188 and the number of his strikeouts was 99 (almost half the number of his hits !). ...So now you can understand why I thought there was no way that Aaron Judge could win the Triple Crown in 2017.
If you divide the number of at-bats by the number of strikeouts, you can see how often a batter strikes out. Naturally, the higher this number, the less likely a batter is to strike out. In the modern era of MLB, which began with the 20th century, all of the batting average leaders in each season had this number exceeding 4. In other words, if you strike out once in every four at-bats, you cannot become the top batting average. It is even tougher when it comes to the Triple Crown, which has been achieved by 12 players in total 14 times. In all 14 times, this number of Triple Crown winners exceeded 5. In other words, if you strike out once every five at-bats, you can't win the Triple Crown. …In the case of Aaron Judge in 2017, this number was 2.6. That's not enough to be the best in batting average, and therefore not enough to win the Triple Crown. But there's no need to do this calculation in the case of Aaron Judge in 2017, because it was enough to compare the number of his hits and the number of his strikeouts.
Judge has been doing great since 2017. Many people expected Judge to win the Triple Crown in 2022 and 2024. But I thought that Judge wouldn't win the Triple Crown either year. In both years, Judge's hits were more than his strikeouts, but the number of his hits was just barely more than his strikeouts. If you calculate how many times he struck out, you'll find that he struck out more than once every four at-bats. That's not enough to become the batting average leader and win the Triple Crown. In the end, Judge was the home run and RBI leader in both years, but he wasn't the batting average leader.
In every era, there are players who are expected to become Triple Crown winners. Even in the 21st century, there are some other players besides Aaron Judge. Of those players, I will mention just one active player here.
Shohei Ohtani in 2024. Many people expected him to not only achieve 50-50 but also win the Triple Crown, but I thought he had no chance of becoming the Triple Crown winner because his strikeouts were more than half of his hits. And because he struck out more than once every four at-bats, I thought he had no chance of eventually becoming the top batting average player. ... In the end, Ohtani became the home run and RBI leader, but he was second in batting average. The top batting average player was Luis Arraez, who didn’t strike out even once in four at-bats.
It's fair to say that Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the two active hitters currently attracting the most attention. I think many fans are paying attention to whether these two will be able to win the Triple Crown. I'm one of them too. I'd like to see them both win the Triple Crown, but it may be tough, because they both strike out a lot. Of the 12 players who have won the Triple Crown in the modern era of Major League Baseball since the 20th century, Mickey Mantle is the only one who had at least one season in which he had more strikeouts than hits. However, Mantle had just one season in which he had more strikeouts than hits, which came two years before his retirement. On the other hand, Aaron Judge has already had five seasons in which he had more strikeouts than hits. Shohei Ohtani has had four seasons.
But, if Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani can reduce the number of strikeouts, they may be able to win the Triple Crown. Or, could these two players win the Triple Crown despite having a lot of strikeouts and overturn the historical facts (jinxes) of the Triple Crown I mentioned above ? I can't take my eyes off these two.
Finally, I would like to note two things that I am a bit concerned about.
In 2001, the start of the 21st century, something happened that had never happened in Major League Baseball in the 100 years of the 20th century. It is the emergence of one team with more strikeouts than hits. After that, the number gradually increased, and by 2016 it had reached seven teams. I thought that within a few years, the number of strikeouts would exceed the number of hits in the entire Major League Baseball, and in 2018 it really did happen. And the number of teams with more strikeouts than hits out of the total 30 teams has reached half, 15. There was not a single team in the 100 years of the 20th century, but it has come to this in just 18 years since the start of the 21st century. From then until 2024, the number of strikeouts will remain higher than the number of hits in the entire Major League Baseball. In 2024, there were 16 teams with more strikeouts than hits. I think one reason for these changes is that many batters are now swinging with the aim of hitting a home run. This is something that will continue to happen in the future, but will it make baseball more interesting? Isn't it going to be boring?
In 2021, Shohei Ohtani was selected as the MVP. Given his outstanding performance, including 9 wins and 2 losses as a pitcher and 46 home runs as a batter, the majority of people would say that this was a natural selection. As an ardent fan of Ohtani, I am happy with this selection result. However, there is one disappointing point. That year, 2021, Ohtani struck out more than he had hits (189 strikeouts, 133 hits). This was the second time in history that a player with more strikeouts than hits was selected as the MVP. The first was Mike Trout in 2014. So far, there hasn't been a single example like this since Ohtani in 2021, but unlike in the past, new indicators such as OPS or WAR have become more important, so I think there will continue to be cases where a player with more strikeouts than hits is selected as MVP. …It is very difficult for humans to evaluate other humans, and the evaluation will vary greatly depending on the criteria used. I hope that the MVP selection will be done with a proper understanding of this.
( If I’ve made a mistake or left out something important, please let me know. I’ll try to make corrections or additions.)
